Am not a very huge fan of the stock market but I have always wondered how it works, What is the benefit, Do they really make profit or this guys in suit are just swindling our money. If your thinking is somehow inline with my previous thought then I will like to tell you that you are in the right place and you are very close to knowing the truth as am going to break down how the stock market work as simple as it can get in this article.
I recently had a client asking me to build something relevant to the stock market but I don't have any formal knowledge about it so I consult an Indian friend of mine (Srinivas Tamada) who is also a blogger. He has written an article on this a very long time ago he titled it The Stock Market Story but I plan to bring it back to life with his permission.
I recently had a client asking me to build something relevant to the stock market but I don't have any formal knowledge about it so I consult an Indian friend of mine (Srinivas Tamada) who is also a blogger. He has written an article on this a very long time ago he titled it The Stock Market Story but I plan to bring it back to life with his permission.
There were 3 citizens living on this island country. "A" owned the land. "B" and "C" each owned 1 dollar.
The net asset of the country = 3 dollars.
"A" has a loan to "C" of 1 dollar, so his net asset is dollar.
"B" sold his land and got 2 dollars, so his net asset is 2 dollars.
"C" owned the piece of land worth 2 dollars but with his 1 dollar.
debt to "A", his net asset is 1 dollar.
he net asset of the country = 4 dollars.
As a result, "A" now owned a piece of land that is worth 3 dollars.
But since he owed "B" 2 dollars, his net asset is 1 dollar.
"B" loaned 2 dollars to "A". So his net asset is 2 dollars.
"C" now has the 2 dollars. His net asset is also 2 dollars.
The net asset of the country = 5 dollars. A bubble is building up.
The payment is by borrowing 2 dollars from "C" and cancellation of his 2 dollars loan to "A".
As a result, "A" has got his debt cleared and he got the 2 coins. His net asset is 2 dollars.
"B" owned a piece of land that is worth 4 dollars but since he has a debt of 2 dollars with "C", his net asset is 2 dollars.
"C" loaned 2 dollars to "B", so his net asset is 2 dollars.
The net asset of the country = 6 dollars. Even though, the country has only one piece of land and 2 dollars in circulation.
One day an evil wind blowed. An evil thought came to "C"'s mind.'Hey, what if the land price stop going up, how could "B" repay my loan. There are only 2 dollars in circulation, I think after all the land that "B" owns is worth at most 1 dollar only. "A" also thought the same.
Nobody wanted to buy land anymore. In the end, "A" owns the 2 dollar coins, his net asset is 2 dollars. "B" owed "C" 2 dollars and the land he owned which he thought worth 4 dollars is now 1 dollar. His net asset become -1 dollar.
"C" has a loan of 2 dollars to "B". But it is a bad debt. Although his net asset is still 2 dollar, his heart is palpitating.
The net asset of the country = 3 dollars again.
The net asset of the country = 3 dollars again.
"B" had no choice but to declare bankruptcy. "C" has to relinquish his 2 dollars bad debt to "B" but in return he acquired the land which is worth 1 dollar now.
END OF THE ANECDOTE
"A" is the winner, "B" is the loser, "C" is lucky that he is spared.
ANALYSIS TIME Few points worth noting:
When a bubble is building up, the debt of individual in a country to one another is also building up. This story of the island is a close system whereby there is no other country
and hence no foreign debt. The worth of the asset can only be calculated using the island's own currency. Hence, there is no net loss.
An over damped system is assumed when the bubble burst, meaning the land's value did not go down to below 1 dollar.
When the bubble burst, the fellow with cash is the winner. The fellows having the land or extending loan to others are the loser.. The asset could shrink or in worst case, they go bankrupt.
If there is another citizen "D" either holding a dollar or another piece of land but he refrained to take part in the game, he will, at the end of the day, neither win nor lose. But he will see the value of his money or land go up and down like a see-saw.
When the bubble was in the growing phase, everybody made money. If you are smart and know that you are living in a growing bubble, it is worthwhile to borrow money (like "A") and take part in the game. But you must know when you should change everything back to cash.
Instead of land, the above applies to stocks as well.
The actual worth of land or stocks depend largely on psychology.
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